Has Trumphoria Finally Hit a Wall?

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Has Trumphoria Finally Hit a Wall?
And what the data say, I’d argue, is that at the very least America is heading for a downshift in its growth rate; the available evidence suggests
that growth over the next decade will be something like 1.5 percent a year, not the 3 percent Donald Trump and his minions keep promising.
Well, asset prices do look high: A widely used gauge of stock valuations puts them at a 15-year high, while a conceptually similar measure says
that housing prices have retraced a bit less than half the rise that culminated in the great housing bust.
At the very least, they’ve been acting as if the U. S. economy still had lots of room to run; throwing cold water on
that belief should mean both higher interest rates and lower stock prices, which is what we’re seeing.
On one side, don’t assume that there was a good reason for the slide (although the fact
that the Dow fell 666 points on Friday hints either at satanic forces or at some mystical link with the Kushner family’s bum investment at 666 Fifth Avenue).
Yet with baby boomers retiring, growth in the U. S. working-age population, especially in prime
working years, has slowed to a crawl, while productivity growth has been disappointing.


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